Contributed by
"William E. Emba"
Joe Fernwright, mender of broken pottery in some future Earth
society, but bored out of his mind after months without any pots
to fix, accepts a mysterious invitation to a far planet where his
skills are needed.
It turns out the planet does or does not operate under a system
of prophecy, and in trying to figure this out better, Joe muses:
"Probability, Joe said to himself. A science in
itself. Bernoulli's Theorem, the BayesLaplace
Theorem, the Poisson Distribution, Negative
Binomial Distribution ... coins and
cards and
birthdays, and at last random variables. And,
hanging over it all, the brooding
specter of
Rudolf Carnap and Hans Reichenbach, the Vienna
Circle of philosophy and the rise of
symbolic
logic.

